The 800 lb Gorilla Doesn't Buy His Food at Costco

As always, the TV upfront garnered plenty of attention (and here and even the folks from overseas weighed in).  In fact, from reading the news, you'd think TV was all but dead.  Well, we know this isn't true.  TV is absolutely still the 800 lb. gorilla.  It may be the aging and blind 800 lb. gorilla, but it still rules the jungle. 

But while TV's ability to reach so many so quickly is the reason it's aging so gracefully, this is also the biggest reason for its downfall.  Maybe if reaching such a large percentage of the population provided a significant "volume discount" it would still be the ultimate "no-brainer".  But it doesn't.  The CPM for TV here in Dallas/Fort Worth ranges from $15-$25.  That's not even the scary part.

The scary part is, I'd guess confidently, that very few agency folks OR clients know what their CPM on TV or radio is.  They go off CPP and then use CPM when it comes to print.  Talk about apples and oranges.  How is one to evaluate the best way to drive sales?

At Goodway 2.0 we're offering dozens of media options, some with CPMs below TV (and still significantly more targeted) and some well above.  But, ROI = CPM x Engagement and CPM is just 50% of the equation. In addition, very few people are willing to even attempt to qualify engagement because it's uncertain and it doesn't fit nicely in the CYA portfolio.  However, to effectively evaluate a plan, its elements, and future opportunities, it's a must.  Whether you look to us to help you with this process or you perform the research yourself, going through the exercise with every element of your plan, every time, will ensure you target and engage the prospects most like to buy.  And that is what it's all about.    

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The Ultimate Instant Research Tool

You may have heard recently about Google's new product Trends.  I read about it in various blogs and feeds so I checked it out.  For the first five seconds I just sort of stared at it.  "Ok, this is neat, but so what?" I thought.  Then it hit me in a huge way.

Research, or at least campaign measurement, is vital to understanding the successes and shortcomings in any marketing effort.  While sales are the ultimate measure of a campaigns success, Google has developed one heck of an awareness research tool.  Let's try this.

The all-new Toyota Camry just launched and is big news in perhaps the most competitive automotive segment.  It's especially big news if you're Honda, where they rely on the Accord for a good chunk of profits.  So, with a $175 million launch behind the Camry, does Honda have anything to worry about?  In the old days of 2005, it would have either taken some very deep digging online, or Honda and Toyota would have to wait for the newest Allison-Fisher consumer awareness data.  Now in futuristic 2006, awareness can reasonably be tied to search activity.  Not all search activity is good for a brand (think automotive recalls), but very telling nonetheless.  Let's take a look at how Camry and Accord are performing here.** 

The results may not be horrifying for Honda, but they're certainly worth watching.  Throughout 2004 and 2005, the Accord held a stellar lead over the Camry, but that gap has closed in the last few months.  Something at Toyota is working.

To be sure, there are other factors.  Honda likely has a more web-savvy audience, for example.  But does that matter?  The web's audience composition didn't change in the last year - external sources influences this gap consolidation.

Right now, this can only be viewed on a country or world basis.  Hopefully Google will move toward DMA-based reporting (or better) and in time periods of less than one month.  Then, if Sonny Bryan's Smokehouse wanted to measure its campaign's success in achieving greater awareness compared to Peggy Sue BBQ, they could do daily or weekly comparisons, gauge how long their ads took to impact awareness, and ultimately sales.  Right now, neither search comes up as having enough volume to measure on Google's grand scale.

Google Trends is a fantastic example of a Web 2.0 application that has real use for its customers.  Real application, real measurement, a real advantage.  And at Goodway 2.0 - that's what we're all about.

**You'll notice I compared "Honda Accord" and "Toyota Camry" and not just "Camry" and "Accord."  The reason for this is that Google associates news articles with big spikes in searches, and all articles for "accord" were centered around "peace accords."  Not exactly what we're looking for.

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TV - The Gigantic Iceberg

A Bolt study came out Monday reporting that among 16-34 year olds who were surveyed, 75% could not name the top four TV networks. One in three couldn't name any of them!

I've run this by a number of ad professionals and the most common response was, "Maybe they just know what channel number it is but not the name of the network." Really? I doubt it. But even if this is the case, imagine if consumers couldn't identify Coke or Pepsi by name, but just know "it's the second row of 24-packs from the end of the isle." Brand recognition is still vital. In fact, I'd love to see how many 16-34 year olds identify more with YouTube than the networks. TV is still the gigantic iceberg in the ocean, but it's melting fast.

With this sobering fact, welcome to the first post on the Goodway 2.0 blog. Goodway 2.0 was formed when the great folks at Goodway Group and I got together and looked at the future of marketing and advertising. Here were some of the findings:

1. Daily newspaper circulation has declined consistently since 1989 while rates have consistently increased. Of course, last week it was announced Newspapers declined another 2.5% just in the last six months.
2. Cable has had a larger share of total TV viewers than the big four networks for some time now. Most recently, the numbers are getting worse.
3. But Cable has its challenged too. The aggregate numbers are great, but that's split among over 200 channels. It's definitely targeted, but also highly fragmented.
4. Ah, radio. To date, 42 million Ipods have been sold. Apple claims 75% market share, which means a total of 56 million or so MP3 players have been sold. Auto makers are scrambling to get Ipod jacks in their cars - radio's last sacred spot. Of course, over 9 million satellite radio subscribers and the ubiquitous use of cell phones in cars don't help.

We talked for a few months and realized that advertisers and large agencies (for their clients) need a real solution to leverage the decline of mass media rather than suffer from it. Goodway 2.0 was formed, and together with Goodway group, complete turn-key services include:

• Targeted direct mail
• Interactive CDs
• Mobile phone marketing
• Grass roots/street marketing
• Buzz-inducing events and stunts
• Targeted newspaper inserts and polybags
• Precision online ad targeting, including blog and podcast advertising

In other words, if your market share is less than 50% of U.S. households, you could benefit from our services.

I'd enjoy your feedback and look forward to keeping you updated on media trends and the exciting results we're getting from taking advantage of this precision marketing revolution.